Author: Jiawen Hou; Jie Hong; Boyun Ji; Bowen Dong; Yue Chen; Michael P Ward; Wei Tu; Zhen Jin; Jian Hu; Qing Su; Wenge Wang; Zheng Zhao; Shuang Xiao; Jiaqi Huang; Wei Lin; Zhijie Zhang
Title: Changing transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China: a nationwide population-based piecewise mathematical modelling study Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: kuf8p4e1_48
Snippet: We found that the estimated Ü´ value for COVID-19 in Wuhan was significantly higher than those reported for SARS and MERS. Since the estimated values are mostly between 2 and 3 for SARS 15 The number of cases in Wuhan in epidemic stages 1 and 2 might be substantially underreported due to various reasons. To address this problem, we designed a method to estimate the epidemic scale in the first two stages. Our numerical results demonstrate a large .....
Document: We found that the estimated Ü´ value for COVID-19 in Wuhan was significantly higher than those reported for SARS and MERS. Since the estimated values are mostly between 2 and 3 for SARS 15 The number of cases in Wuhan in epidemic stages 1 and 2 might be substantially underreported due to various reasons. To address this problem, we designed a method to estimate the epidemic scale in the first two stages. Our numerical results demonstrate a large degree of underreporting with a similar conclusion to a previous study 6 and these exposed individuals likely became a major source of intra-or inter-provincial infection. Underreporting of exposed individuals could lead to an underestimation of infectious individuals in stages 1 and 2. Considering the rapidly increasing number of infectious individuals in Wuhan after January 23, 2020, our . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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