Author: Hellewell, Joel; Abbott, Sam; Gimma, Amy; Bosse, Nikos I; Jarvis, Christopher I; Russell, Timothy W; Munday, James D; Kucharski, Adam J; Edmunds, W John; Funk, Sebastian; Eggo, Rosalind M
Title: Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_28
ID: ueb7mjnv_27
Snippet: To achieve control of 90% of outbreaks, 80% of contacts needed to be traced and isolated for scenarios with a reproduction number of 2·5 ( figure 3 ). The probability of control was higher at all levels of contact tracing when the reproduction number was 1·5, and fell rapidly for a reproduction number of 3·5. At a reproduction number of 1·5, the effect of isolation was coupled with the chance of stochastic extinction resulting from overdisper.....
Document: To achieve control of 90% of outbreaks, 80% of contacts needed to be traced and isolated for scenarios with a reproduction number of 2·5 ( figure 3 ). The probability of control was higher at all levels of contact tracing when the reproduction number was 1·5, and fell rapidly for a reproduction number of 3·5. At a reproduction number of 1·5, the effect of isolation was coupled with the chance of stochastic extinction resulting from overdispersion, 19 which is why some outbreaks were controlled even at 0% contacts traced. Isolation and contact tracing decreased transmission, as shown by a decrease in the effective reproduction number ( figure 3) . When the basic reproduction number was 1·5, the median estimate rapidly fell below 1, which indicated that control was probable. For the higher transmission scenarios, a higher level of contact tracing was needed to bring the median effective reproduction number below 1. The effect of isolation without contact tracing can be seen at 0%, where the effective reproduction number was lower than the simulated basic reproduction number because of rapid isolation (and ceasing transmission) of cases.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- high level and rapid isolation: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- high level and rapidly fall: 1
- high level and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41
- high level and reproduction number scenario: 1, 2
- high level and simulated basic reproduction number: 1
- high transmission scenario and transmission scenario: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- isolation effect and rapid isolation: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- isolation effect and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
- isolation effect and stochastic extinction: 1
- isolation effect and transmission scenario: 1, 2
- median estimate and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31
- median estimate and reproduction number scenario: 1
- rapid isolation and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
- rapid isolation and transmission scenario: 1
- reproduction number and simulated basic reproduction number: 1, 2
- reproduction number and stochastic extinction: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
- reproduction number and transmission scenario: 1, 2, 3, 4
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date