Confronting COVID-19: Surging critical care capacity in Italy

Jose Manuel Rodriguez Llanes; Rafael Castro Delgado; Morten Gram Pedersen; Pedro Arcos Gonzalez; Matteo Meneghini

The main parameters of the model were obtained by analytically fitting the total number of cases as recorded by the Italian Civil Protection, and by considerations based on the literature regarding incubation time and disease duration (19) . From such parameters, we could estimate the basic reproduction number before the first Italian cases appeared (R 0 =3·5), and after COVID-19 testing and quarantine was introduced (R0=2·6). In addition, we estimated the effects of the measures of social distancing introduced after March 8 followed by further extension to the national territory a couple of days later (box 1 (0.71) . Under the assumption that 9·9% is a robust measure of the proportion of those cases that may require ICU treatment on a given day, (even in this scenario) this would mean that the Italian health system would need at least 8791 ICU beds entirely dedicated to COVID-19, as early as 10 April 2020, and till May 1. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.