Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions

Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Roger Whitaker; Ivan Fesenko; Yakov Kremnitzer; Jack Noonan

In Figures 8 and 9 , we have moved the time t 2 , the time of lifting the lock-down restrictions, 9 days forward so that the lock-down period is 21 days rather than 30 days as in the main scenario. The solid red and blue colours in Figures 8 and 9 correspond to t 2 = April 13 and the middle grey vertical line marks April 13. Consider first Figure 8 showing proportions of infected people and reflecting the demand for hospital beds. Since in the scenario t 2 = April 13 we start isolating people from G earlier than for t 2 = April 22, the number of infected from group G (red solid line) is slightly lower during the end of April -beginning of May for t 2 = April 13 (purple solid line). The total number of infections from the rest of population 6 . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.