Author: Wenjun Zhang; Zeliang Chen; Yi Lu; Zhongmin Guo; Yanhong Qi; Guoling Wang; Jiahai Lu
Title: A Generalized Discrete Dynamic Model for Human Epidemics Document date: 2020_2_12
ID: cv36vc8i_33
Snippet: Sensitivity analysis indicated that almost all parameters have significant influence on the dynamics and final outcome of human epidemics. Among them, the dynamic change of transmission strength (equivalently, the dynamic change of R 0 ) is one of the most important and controllable factor. The human epidemics can be deterministically weakened by reducing transmission strength. In addition, the results demonstrated that reducing the delay for hos.....
Document: Sensitivity analysis indicated that almost all parameters have significant influence on the dynamics and final outcome of human epidemics. Among them, the dynamic change of transmission strength (equivalently, the dynamic change of R 0 ) is one of the most important and controllable factor. The human epidemics can be deterministically weakened by reducing transmission strength. In addition, the results demonstrated that reducing the delay for hospitalization is much effective in weakening disease epidemic. Sensitivity analysis on non-hospitalization recovery rate reminds us the importance for enhancing immunity to recover from the disease. Mean incubation period is another key factor in determining disease epidemics. In a certain range, a short incubation period may lead to the rapid development and serious outcome of epidemic disease.
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