The role of high-speed rail and air travel in the spread of COVID-19 in China

Zhu, Pengyu; Guo, Yuqing

BACKGROUND: Public transportation is a major facilitator of the spread of infectious diseases and has been a focus of policy interventions aiming to suppress the current COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: We use a random-effects panel data model and a Difference-in-Differences in Reverse (DDR) model to examine how air and rail transport links with Wuhan as well as the suspension of these transport links influenced the development of the epidemic in China. RESULTS: We find high-speed rail (HSR) and air connectivity with Wuhan resulted in 25.4% and 21.2% increases in the average number of daily new confirmed cases, respectively, while their suspension led to 18.6% and 13.3% decreases in that number. We also find that the suspension effect was dynamic, growing stronger over time and peaking 20–23 days after the Wuhan lockdown, then gradually wearing off. It took approximately four weeks for this effect to fully materialize, roughly twice the maximum incubation period, and similar dynamic patterns were seen in both HSR and air models. Overall, HSR had a greater impact on COVID-19 development than air transport. CONCLUSIONS: Our research provides important evidence for implementing transportation-related policies in controlling future infectious diseases.