Author: Adam J Kucharski; Timothy W Russell; Charlie Diamond; Yang Liu; John Edmunds; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study Document date: 2020_2_2
ID: gmi1ewc2_25
Snippet: The estimated fluctuations in R t were driven by the rise and fall in number of cases both in Wuhan and internationally, as well as prevalence on evacuation flights ( Figures 2B-D) . Such fluctuations could be the result of changes in behaviour in the population at risk, or specific superspreading events that inflated the average estimate of transmission (13, 19, 20) . We found some evidence of reduction in R t in the days prior to the introducti.....
Document: The estimated fluctuations in R t were driven by the rise and fall in number of cases both in Wuhan and internationally, as well as prevalence on evacuation flights ( Figures 2B-D) . Such fluctuations could be the result of changes in behaviour in the population at risk, or specific superspreading events that inflated the average estimate of transmission (13, 19, 20) . We found some evidence of reduction in R t in the days prior to the introduction of travel restrictions in Wuhan, which may have been reflected outbreak control efforts or growing awareness of SARS-CoV-2 during this period. The uncertainty in our estimates for R t following the decline in early February ( Figure 2A ) results from limited data sources to inform changes in transmission during this period.
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