Author: Liangrong Peng; Wuyue Yang; Dongyan Zhang; Changjing Zhuge; Liu Hong
Title: Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling Document date: 2020_2_18
ID: m87tapjp_5
Snippet: For this purpose, in the early stage many efforts have been devoted to estimate key epidemic parameters, such as the basic reproduction number, doubling time and serial interval, in which the statistics models are mainly used [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] . Due to the limitation of detection methods and restricted diagnostic criteria, asymptomatic or mild patients are possibly excluded from the confirmed cases. To this end, some methods have been propo.....
Document: For this purpose, in the early stage many efforts have been devoted to estimate key epidemic parameters, such as the basic reproduction number, doubling time and serial interval, in which the statistics models are mainly used [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] . Due to the limitation of detection methods and restricted diagnostic criteria, asymptomatic or mild patients are possibly excluded from the confirmed cases. To this end, some methods have been proposed to estimate untraced contacts 10 , undetected international cases 11 , or the actual infected cases in Wuhan and Hubei province based on statistics models 12 , or the epidemic outside Hubei province and overseas 6, [13] [14] [15] . With the improvement of clinic treatment of patients as well as more strict methods stepped up for containing the spread, many researchers investigate the effect of such changes by statistical reasoning 16, 17 and stochastic simulation 18, 19 .
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