Author: Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann
Title: Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 0uzma5vr_41
Snippet: In order to access this information, the very same model is fitted to subsets of data in a shifting time window. By this, the reproduction number Rt is determined as a time-dependent variable over time reflecting the impact of NPI on the phenomenological model parameters. We further fine-tuned this approach by also including the history of the viral spreading for each time window. A best fit of the model parameters to the case numbers at times be.....
Document: In order to access this information, the very same model is fitted to subsets of data in a shifting time window. By this, the reproduction number Rt is determined as a time-dependent variable over time reflecting the impact of NPI on the phenomenological model parameters. We further fine-tuned this approach by also including the history of the viral spreading for each time window. A best fit of the model parameters to the case numbers at times before the time window under consideration is performed and the state of the model at starting time of the considered time window is used as initial condition for the subsequent fitting inside the time window. The resulting time course of the reproduction number Rt reflects not only the measures installed at particular time points but also the inertia of the model by incorporating the diversity of states the population is in at the time of NPI implementation.
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