Scenarios of future Indian electricity demand accounting for space cooling and electric vehicle adoption

Barbar, Marc; Mallapragada, Dharik S.; Alsup, Meia; Stoner, Robert

India is expected to witness rapid growth in electricity use over the next two decades. Here, we introduce a custom regression model to project electricity consumption in India over the coming decades, which includes a bottom-up estimate of electricity consumption for two major growth drivers, air conditioning, and vehicle electrification. The model projections are available at a customizable level of spatial aggregation at an hourly temporal resolution, which makes them useful as inputs to long-term electricity infrastructure planning studies. The approach is used to develop electricity consumption data sets spanning various technology adoption and growth scenarios up to the year 2050 in five-year increments. The aim of the data is to provide a range of scenarios for India’s demand growth given new technology adoption. With long-term hourly demand projections serving as an essential input for electricity infrastructure modeling, this data publication enables further work on energy efficiency, generation, and transmission expansion planning for a fast-growing and increasingly important region from a global climate mitigation perspective.