Author: Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann
Title: Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 0uzma5vr_28
Snippet: The strategy to keep the health care system functional and to delay viral spreading until major parts of the population are immunised is likely to fail. Not only that the delay needed to keep the number of cases within the limits of the health care capacity is too long, as discussed above in scenario B. The fraction of the immunised population in this scenario is in the range of 1% after one year and saturates there. This fraction was not even re.....
Document: The strategy to keep the health care system functional and to delay viral spreading until major parts of the population are immunised is likely to fail. Not only that the delay needed to keep the number of cases within the limits of the health care capacity is too long, as discussed above in scenario B. The fraction of the immunised population in this scenario is in the range of 1% after one year and saturates there. This fraction was not even reached in Hubei province in China (estimated as the ratio of case numbers to total population). Thus, the reduction of transmission probability by immunisation of the population is negligible.
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