Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and epidemiological parameters with uncertainty from serological surveys

Daniel B Larremore; Bailey K Fosdick; Kate M Bubar; Sam Zhang; Stephen M Kissler; C. Jessica E. Metcalf; Caroline Buckee; Yonatan Grad

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint Figure S7 : Average credible interval width for R eff estimates using four sampling strategies and four serological test kits. Credible intervals were calculated for data generated according to four sampling strategies (columns, colors) and four test kits (rows), with sensitivity and specificity values as indicated; see legends. Each point represents the average width of the intervals for the indicated overall seroprevalence value (see annotations on plots) at the specified number of serological samples n, out of a total of 250 independent trials. Some seroprevalence values are plotted in black simply to guide the eye. The MDI strategy shown was designed to optimize estimation of R eff . Sampling strategies that resulted in posterior credible intervals with inaccurate coverage (see Supplementary Fig. S6 ) are crossed out. S16 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.