Selected article for: "bayesian model and short term"

Author: Jiang, Shuang; Zhou, Quan; Zhan, Xiaowei; Li, Qiwei
Title: BayesSMILES: Bayesian Segmentation Modeling for Longitudinal Epidemiological Studies
  • Cord-id: ev8z7mjz
  • Document date: 2021_1_18
  • ID: ev8z7mjz
    Snippet: The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic. To characterize its disease transmissibility, we propose a Bayesian change point detection model using daily actively infectious cases. Our model builds on a Bayesian Poisson segmented regression model that can 1) capture the epidemiological dynamics under the changing conditions caused by external or internal factors; 2) provide uncertainty estimates of both the number and locations of change points; and 3) adjust any explanatory time-va
    Document: The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic. To characterize its disease transmissibility, we propose a Bayesian change point detection model using daily actively infectious cases. Our model builds on a Bayesian Poisson segmented regression model that can 1) capture the epidemiological dynamics under the changing conditions caused by external or internal factors; 2) provide uncertainty estimates of both the number and locations of change points; and 3) adjust any explanatory time-varying covariates. Our model can be used to evaluate public health interventions, identify latent events associated with spreading rates, and yield better short-term forecasts.

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents