Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China

Chong You; Yuhao Deng; Wenjie Hu; Jiarui Sun; Qiushi Lin; Feng Zhou; Cheng Heng Pang; Yuan Zhang; Zhengchao Chen; Xiao-Hua Zhou

The dataset used in this study is based on the confirmed cases reported by NHC China. However, during the period of data collection, the official guidelines for diagnosis and treatment were updated four times. The criteria of confirmation have evolved from the original "whole genome sequencing of the respiratory excretion" to "positive viral nucleic acid results by the RT-PCR of the respiratory excretion or viral gene sequence", and, most currently, the inclusion of positive nucleic acid results of the blood sample. In the meanwhile, the confirmation process is simplified by removing the accreditation process by the national expert committee for confirmed cases. The fourth edition granted the accrediting authority to the municipalities. 11 In addition, the medical resources in Hubei Province especially in Wuhan have been enhanced remarkably. All of these changes might result in a temporary surge of confirmed cases and lead to an overestimation of Ü´ , especially in Hubei Province. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.