A novel cohort analysis approach to determining the case fatality rate of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases

Charit S Narayanan

Simulations 140 Fig 4 shows combinations of onset-to-death interval and case fatality rate under which 141 the R 2 between the model and reality is ¿= 0·98 for the shorter time frame (up to Feb 142 8). This demonstrates that the range of possibilities for the case fatality rate is from 143 4·8% to 6·1%. Furthermore, the case fatality rate is most likely between 5·5% and 6% 144 due to its higher frequency. There is a wide range of values of onset to death that are 145 theoretically possible. However, if we know the onset to death to be 10%, then the only 146 possible case fatality rate that satisfies this is a case fatality rate of 5·7%. Therefore, a 147 very important implication of this work is that we can accurately ascertain the case 148 fatality rate given the onset-to-death interval. The practical implication is to calculate 149 this value accurately and evaluate then ascertain case fatality rate.