Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world

Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 11.20034363 doi: medRxiv preprint to the much larger efforts to test the population, with a ratio of close to 4 tests per 1000 inhabitants, compared with 0.066 tests per 1000 inhabitants for Japan. Figure 6 shows that the dynamics of the infected population is clearly not an exponential growth, as the growth rate has decreased significant from 40% at the end of Feb to 1. could be expected to be reached within 20 days. However, whether the daily incidence can decay symmetrically to the increase phase will depend largely on the strategy of the government. In China, it was mainly the extreme measures of quarantines that helped most provinces' incidences to decay fast. The South Korean government has been actively tracing all possible cases and . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.