Healthcare worker absenteeism, child care costs, and COVID-19 school closures: a simulation analysis

Elizabeth T Chin; Benjamin Q Huynh; Nathan C Lo; Trevor Hastie; Sanjay Basu

We observed a number of counties that could be viable targets for child care subsidies based on our estimates (Table 1, Figure 3 ). Counties like Conecuh County, Alabama and Todd County, South Dakota, have high rates of diabetes, rurality, projected unmet child care needs, as well as a high ω, suggesting that they would suffer disproportionately from COVID-19 in the event of school closures, but also that a child care subsidy would be relatively inexpensive for them. Similarly, Hidalgo County, Texas and Fresno County, California have high projected rates of unmet child care needs and ω, suggesting they are viable targets for child care subsidies. San Francisco County, California is one of the few counties with ω < 1 (due to high child care costs, low wages, and low projected unmet child care needs), illustrating the variance of our estimates within states. Counties like Bronx County, New York that have high projected school closure effectiveness but also high projected unmet child care needs, could also consider child care subsidies given the large estimated benefit of school closures.