Author: Julia Shen
Title: A Recursive Bifurcation Model for Predicting the Peak of COVID-19 Virus Spread in United States and Germany Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 129608e4_34
Snippet: Use a termination condition (Eq. 6) to estimate the peak time of virus spread Figure 4 shows the prediction result of infected population in United States. The bifurcation pattern of infected population is given in Figure 4 (a) and the determination of virus spread rate is presented in Figure 4 (b). The virus spread rate in United States ( 1 = 0.072) is smaller than that in South Korea ( 1 = 0.106) because the population density in South Korea is.....
Document: Use a termination condition (Eq. 6) to estimate the peak time of virus spread Figure 4 shows the prediction result of infected population in United States. The bifurcation pattern of infected population is given in Figure 4 (a) and the determination of virus spread rate is presented in Figure 4 (b). The virus spread rate in United States ( 1 = 0.072) is smaller than that in South Korea ( 1 = 0.106) because the population density in South Korea is much higher. This may also mean that the peak time of virus spread will be longer than that in South Korea. Figures 4(c) and 4(d) are the predicted data for cycles 1 and 2, respectively. According to Figure 4 (d), the COVID virus spread in United States will roughly peak on April 26, 2020.
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