Author: Hasan, A.; Nasution, Y.
Title: A Compartmental Epidemic Model Incorporating Probable Cases to Model COVID-19 Outbreak in Regions with Limited Testing Capacity Cord-id: muf8zbd0 Document date: 2020_8_2
ID: muf8zbd0
Snippet: We propose a new compartmental epidemic model taking into account people who has symptoms with no confirmatory laboratory testing (probable cases). We prove well-posedness of the model and provide an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number R0. We use the model together with an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number Rt of COVID-19 in West Java province, Indonesia, where laboratory testing capacity is limited. Based on our estimation,
Document: We propose a new compartmental epidemic model taking into account people who has symptoms with no confirmatory laboratory testing (probable cases). We prove well-posedness of the model and provide an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number R0. We use the model together with an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number Rt of COVID-19 in West Java province, Indonesia, where laboratory testing capacity is limited. Based on our estimation, the value of Rt is higher when the probable cases are taken into account. This correction can be used by decision and policy makers when considering re-opening policy and evaluation of measures.
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