Impact of weather on COVID-19 transmission in South Asian Countries: an application of the ARIMAX model

Hossain, Md. Sabbir; Ahmed, Sulaiman; Uddin, Md. Jamal

We aimed to examine the impact of weather on COVID-19 confirmed cases in South Asian countries, namely, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Data on daily confirmed cases, together with weather parameters, were collected from the first day of COVID confirmed cases in each country to 31 August 2020. The weather parameters were Rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), maximum and minimum temperature (°C), surface pressure (kpa), maximum air pollutants matter PM 2.5 (μg/m3) and maximum wind speed (m/s). Data were analyzed for each investigated countries separately by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variables (ARIMAX) model. We found that maximum wind speed had significant negative impact on COVID-19 transmission in India (-209.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): -369.13, -49.77) and Sri Lanka (-2.77, 95% CI: -4.77, -0.77). Apart from India, temperature had mixed effects (i.e., positive or negative) in four countries in South Asia. For example, maximum temperature had negative impact (-30.52, 95% CI: -60.24, -0.78) in Bangladesh and positive impact (5.10, 95% CI: 0.06, 10.14) in Afghanistan. Whereas rainfall had negative effects (-48.64, 95% CI: -80.17, -17.09) in India and mixed effects in Pakistan. Besides, maximum air pollutants matter PM 2.5 was negatively associated with the confirmed cases of COVID-19. In conclusion, maximum wind speed, rainfall, air pollutants (maximum PM 2.5) and temperature are four variables that could play a vital role in the transmission of COVID-19. Although there is a mixed conclusion regarding weather parameters and COVID-19 transmission, we recommend developing environmental policies regarding the transmission of COVID-19 in South Asian countries.