Maximum entropy method for estimating the reproduction number: An investigation for COVID-19 in China

Yong Tao

In conclusion, to estimate the reproduction number, the probability distribution function of the generation interval of an infectious disease is required to be available; however, this distribution is often unknown. In the existing literature, many scholars used exponential distribution, normal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Gamma distribution to approximate the generation interval distribution. To do so, one needs to collect enough information about symptom onsets of all cases, which requires examining a large number of cases. By contrast, the maximum entropy method has more advantage of predicting probability distributions given the incomplete information. In this letter, we argue that, given the mean value and variance of the generation interval, one can determine its probability distribution function by using maximum entropy method. Because the overall data (population) of the generation . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.