A vulnerability-based approach to human-mobility reduction for countering COVID-19 transmission in London while considering local air quality

Manu Sasidharan; Ajit Singh; Mehran Eskandari Torbaghan; Ajith Kumar Parlikad

An analysis by [33] of the UK's National Health Service (NHS) records have reported that 20% of England's population are at risk of mortality from COVID-19 due to underlying conditions and age. We support the UK government's existing COVID-19 guidance [34] to exercise good hygiene 35 and to avoid unnecessary travel. While considering the evidence that COVID-19 can be transmitted from an asymptomatic individual [3] , we do not support the current countermeasure of suspending LU operations on the stations that do not serve as interchanges. This is because of (i) the statistically significant risk of contracting ARI's on UK's public transport and higher pandemic case rates within London boroughs that have comparatively easier access to interchange stations 40 [21, 22] and, (ii) relatively higher air pollution levels in LU stations than ambient background locations or road side environment. Since isolating towns or even cities is not yet part of the UK government's action plan [34] , we recommend a vulnerability-based assessment of different boroughs in London and to accordingly suspend or reduce operations on LU stations within highly vulnerable regions. For instance, London Borough of Kensington and Chelsea is seen to be highly 45 All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.