Modelling strategies to predict hospital demand during the COVID-19 outbreak in Bogotá, Colombia

Claudia Rivera-Rodriguez; Beatriz Piedad Urdinola

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20065466 doi: medRxiv preprint therefore the models must be updated. The population is divided into Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I), recovered (R), and D (death). Those Infected 85 (I) are subdivided into three compartments: I U , I NoU , I H which, respectively, denote infected individuals that require ICU care, infected individuals that require hospital care, but not ICU, and infected individuals that only require home care. We divided the population into susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected ICU (IU), infected in hospital but not ICU (INoU ), infected that require only home care (IH ), recovered (R) and dead subjects (D) individuals. Infected subjects are IU, INoU or IH with probabilities pU, pNoU and pH respectively. The term 1/κ is the mean incubation period and 1/γU, 1/γNoU, 1/γH are the daily probabilities that the respective patients recover. d is the probability of death for ICU patients.