Forecasting COVID-19 Chile’ second outbreak by a generalized SIR model with constant time delays and a fitted positivity rate

Cumsille, Patricio; Rojas-Díaz, Óscar; de Espanés, Pablo Moisset; Verdugo-Hernandéz, Paula

The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic’s consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in quantifying indicators describing diverse aspects of the pandemic. Consequently, this work aims to develop a clear, efficient, and reproducible methodology for parameter optimization, whose implementation is illustrated using data from three representative regions from Chile and a suitable generalized SIR model together with a fitted positivity rate. Our results reproduce the general trend of the infected’s curve, distinguishing the reported and real cases. Finally, our methodology is robust, and it allows us to forecast a second outbreak of COVID-19 and the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 qualitatively according to the reported dead cases.