Author: Richard A Neher; Robert Dyrdak; Valentin Druelle; Emma B Hodcroft; Jan Albert
Title: Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic Document date: 2020_2_17
ID: 3p2dl8yf_19
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 resonance, θ needs to be around October-November to fit the data with most cases in December-January. In the second scenario with high connectivity, θ needs to be in December-January coinciding with the peak in prevalence. Given that most countries are highly connected, we focus here on exploring the high-import and strong seasonal forcing sce.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 resonance, θ needs to be around October-November to fit the data with most cases in December-January. In the second scenario with high connectivity, θ needs to be in December-January coinciding with the peak in prevalence. Given that most countries are highly connected, we focus here on exploring the high-import and strong seasonal forcing scenario. This scenario, with maximal β in mid-winter, is also more compatible with climate variation around the year. The qualitative behavior of the fit is robust to uncertainty in R 0 and the frequency of reinfection b.
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