Author: Gerardo Chowell; Ranu Dhillon; Devabhaktuni Srikrishna
Title: Getting to zero quickly in the 2019-nCov epidemic with vaccines or rapid testing Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: 4sw1hrnf_2
Snippet: Ending the epidemic requires reducing the basic reproduction number (R) -the average number of people infected by each 2019-nCov-infected patient -to below 1, at which point transmission contracts and eventually burns out. However, if R is only brought marginally below 1, transmission could still linger for years. Enough infections could occur during this time that, especially given high mobility of people and density of urban areas, new hotspots.....
Document: Ending the epidemic requires reducing the basic reproduction number (R) -the average number of people infected by each 2019-nCov-infected patient -to below 1, at which point transmission contracts and eventually burns out. However, if R is only brought marginally below 1, transmission could still linger for years. Enough infections could occur during this time that, especially given high mobility of people and density of urban areas, new hotspots could get seeded and transmission could resurge above 1. Ending the epidemic, therefore, may require not just getting R below 1, but driving it down more aggressively in order to reach zero cases quickly.
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