Author: Stephan Gloeckner; Gerard Krause; Michael Hoehle
Title: Now-casting the COVID-19 epidemic: The use case of Japan, March 2020 Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: 4fyihdkv_13
Snippet: In contrast to prediction models aiming to estimate the future development of an outbreak, the now-cast approach has the more humble, but no less valuable, objective to estimate whether an outbreak is still on the rise or already declining. In comparison to previous now-casting approaches, the method presented here, takes into account that a) reporting delay changes over time during an epidemic and also that b) for a relevant proportion of case r.....
Document: In contrast to prediction models aiming to estimate the future development of an outbreak, the now-cast approach has the more humble, but no less valuable, objective to estimate whether an outbreak is still on the rise or already declining. In comparison to previous now-casting approaches, the method presented here, takes into account that a) reporting delay changes over time during an epidemic and also that b) for a relevant proportion of case reports not all data are available for computation of case specific reporting delays.
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