Author: Spencer Woody; Mauricio Garcia Tec; Maytal Dahan; Kelly Gaither; Spencer Fox; Lauren Ancel Meyers; James G Scott
Title: Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the US using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 87lxnslh_25
Snippet: Equation (1) expresses the most general form of the IHME model, where θ it = (κ it , µ it , ω it ) changes from area to area and day to day. This is highly overparametrized; it is necessary to enforce some type of shrinkage on these parameters in order to make the model identifiable. We address model overparametrization in a similar way to the original IHME analysis (i.e. via a hierarchical model). But we use very different data based on mobi.....
Document: Equation (1) expresses the most general form of the IHME model, where θ it = (κ it , µ it , ω it ) changes from area to area and day to day. This is highly overparametrized; it is necessary to enforce some type of shrinkage on these parameters in order to make the model identifiable. We address model overparametrization in a similar way to the original IHME analysis (i.e. via a hierarchical model). But we use very different data based on mobile-phone GPS traces that quantify actual distancing behavior, rather than the timing of state-level social-distancing policies (e.g. school closures, stay-at-home orders, etc.).
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