Assessment of physiological signs associated with COVID-19 measured using wearable devices

Natarajan, A.; Su, H.-W.; Heneghan, C.

Respiration rate, heart rate, and heart rate variability are some health metrics that are easily measured by consumer devices and which can potentially provide early signs of illness. Furthermore, mobile applications which accompany wearable devices can be used to collect relevant self-reported symptoms and demographic data. This makes consumer devices a valuable tool in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. We considered two approaches to assessing COVID-19 - a symptom-based approach, and a physiological signs based technique. Firstly, we trained a Logistic Regression classifier to predict the need for hospitalization of COVID-19 patients given the symptoms experienced, age, sex, and BMI. Secondly, we trained a neural network classifier to predict whether a person is sick on any specific day given respiration rate, heart rate, and heart rate variability data for that day and and for the four preceding days. Data on 1,181 subjects diagnosed with COVID-19 (active infection, PCR test) were collected from May 21 - July 14, 2020. 11.0% of COVID-19 subjects were asymptomatic, 47.2% of subjects recovered at home by themselves, 33.2% recovered at home with the help of someone else, 8.16% of subjects required hospitalization without ventilation support, and 0.448% required ventilation. Fever was present in 54.8% of subjects. Based on self-reported symptoms alone, we obtained an AUC of 0.77 +/- 0.05 for the prediction of the need for hospitalization. Based on physiological signs, we obtained an AUC of 0.77 +/- 0.03 for the prediction of illness on a specific day with 4 previous days of history. Respiration rate and heart rate are typically elevated by illness, while heart rate variability is decreased. Measuring these metrics can help in early diagnosis, and in monitoring the progress of the disease.