Risk Assessment Model and Application of COVID-19 Virus Transmission in Closed Environments at Sea

Pang, Sulin; Xiao, Jianhua; Fang, Yingshan

This paper focuses on the risk assessment methods of novel coronavirus pneumonia virus (COVID-19) pneumonia virus spreading in closed marine environment. Firstly, the possibility of the spread of new coronavirus in closed environments at sea and the consequences of the harm caused by the epidemic are classified into five levels, and the corresponding risk assessment framework is constructed, and the risk assessment model of the spread of COVID-19 pneumonia virus in closed environment at sea is established taking the Japanese “Diamond Princess” as an example, the model is applied and its output is analysed. Finally, the proportion of the cumulative confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess is calculated, and the possibility of viral infection of Diamond Princess passengers in this COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic in four different risk transmission stages are assessed, and the corresponding risk assessment is undertaken. Through the calculation of risk assessment value, the five stages of the epidemic are established to assess the risk of the “Diamond Princess” outbreak. The research method in the present work helps to provide a risk assessment and analysis idea for the risk of spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in a closed environment at sea.