Author: Maximilian Vierlboeck; Roshanak R Nilchiani; Christine M Edwards
Title: The Easter and Passover Blip in New York City Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 72v6qufw_33
Snippet: So far, we have looked at baseline scenarios which behave the same way over time and have changes that are linear or follow a gradient. Unfortunately, this is not at all the case in reality, as singular or short term relaxation in rules or temporarily making exceptions can cause major changes to the effective contact rate for a brief period of time. Such events can be short ones that increase the effective contact rate momentarily, but also longe.....
Document: So far, we have looked at baseline scenarios which behave the same way over time and have changes that are linear or follow a gradient. Unfortunately, this is not at all the case in reality, as singular or short term relaxation in rules or temporarily making exceptions can cause major changes to the effective contact rate for a brief period of time. Such events can be short ones that increase the effective contact rate momentarily, but also longer time periods that show an increase or decrease, such as seasons, for example [see 22]. Since the increases are more critical than the decreases, we want to take a look at them in this section.
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