Author: Marina Voinson; Alexandra Alvergne; Sylvain Billiard; Charline Smadi
Title: Stochastic dynamics of an epidemics with recurrent spillovers from an endemic reservoir Document date: 2017_11_3
ID: b2f3a8un_20
Snippet: In other words, the initial number of susceptible individuals for the i + 1-th excursion is the initial number of susceptible individuals for the i-th excursion minus the mean number of recovered individuals produced during the i-th excursion under our branching process approximation. We repeat the procedure for the i + 1-th excursion, and so on, until k satisfies S k > 0 and S k+1 ≤ 0 (no susceptible anymore). In order to be considered as an o.....
Document: In other words, the initial number of susceptible individuals for the i + 1-th excursion is the initial number of susceptible individuals for the i-th excursion minus the mean number of recovered individuals produced during the i-th excursion under our branching process approximation. We repeat the procedure for the i + 1-th excursion, and so on, until k satisfies S k > 0 and S k+1 ≤ 0 (no susceptible anymore). In order to be considered as an outbreak, an excursion has to exceed c individuals, where we recall that c is the epidemiological threshold. Under our branching process approximation, the probability for the i-th excursion to reach the epidemiological threshold (see Appendix A) is:
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