Author: Adam Burns; Alexander Gutfraind
Title: Symptom-Based Isolation Policies: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Outbreaks of Influenza and COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: d13j2pt5_69
Snippet: The available data generally indicates the daily number of new ILI cases or the daily number of new absences, and both were also calculated from the model. In all calibrations, we found the model to give a tight fit to the data matching the attack rate, the peak date, and the overall shape, as illustrated in Figure . The symptom data indicates that influenza ILI symptoms first arise 24 hours ILI(t) J (t) = l ∑ s l s s after influenza challenge .....
Document: The available data generally indicates the daily number of new ILI cases or the daily number of new absences, and both were also calculated from the model. In all calibrations, we found the model to give a tight fit to the data matching the attack rate, the peak date, and the overall shape, as illustrated in Figure . The symptom data indicates that influenza ILI symptoms first arise 24 hours ILI(t) J (t) = l ∑ s l s s after influenza challenge and peak around 2.5 after challenge. Accordingly, we assume that, of the population reporting ILI symptoms, ¼, ½ and ¼ first reports on day 1, 2 and 3, respectively.
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