Author: Huiwen Wang; Yanwen Zhang; Shan Lu; Shanshan Wang
Title: Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: fyh8gjjl_80
Snippet: Furthermore, we also present the forecast results of the four milepost moments together with the trend of the cumulative number of infectious cases in hospitalN t and the cumulative number of infectious t l=1Ê l in Figure 4 when the prediction starting point t 0 fixed at Jan 29th, Jan 31st, Feb 12th and Feb 26th, 2020, respectively. As can be seen from Figure 4 (a), in Jan 29th, which is the very early stage of the epidemic, we predicted that th.....
Document: Furthermore, we also present the forecast results of the four milepost moments together with the trend of the cumulative number of infectious cases in hospitalN t and the cumulative number of infectious t l=1Ê l in Figure 4 when the prediction starting point t 0 fixed at Jan 29th, Jan 31st, Feb 12th and Feb 26th, 2020, respectively. As can be seen from Figure 4 (a), in Jan 29th, which is the very early stage of the epidemic, we predicted that the first turning point would appear on Jan 31st, which is only one day behind the actual observation. Additionally, the time of the second turning point result predicted on that day was Feb 14th, which is only 3 days away from the reality. The first zero and second zero forecast results are Mar 7th and May 11th, respectively. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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