The effects of COVID-19 containment measures on the Asia-Pacific region

Furceri, Davide Kothari Siddharth Zhang Longmei

Abstract As the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the world, governments introduced significant containment measures to control the spread of the virus. In this paper, we leverage inputs from IMF desk economists to construct a novel narrative index of containment measures for 11 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. A key innovation in our index is that it distinguishes between economic sectors (services, industry, retail), thus providing a more granular view of restrictions related to economic activity. Using this index, along with other high-frequency data, we find that containment measures have been successful in reducing the spread of the virus (though with some heterogeneity) but have also been associated with large short-term economic costs. Furthermore, exploiting the granularity of our index, we find that differences in strategies across countries regarding the closing of the industrial sector have mattered: imposing less severe restrictions on industry has been associated with lower economic costs without leading to worse health outcomes, possibly reflecting the less contact intensive nature of industrial activity.