Entry screening and multi-layer mitigation of COVID-19 cases for a safe university reopening

Elbanna, A.; Wong, G. N.; Weiner, Z. J.; Wang, T.; Zhang, H.; Liu, Z.; Tkachenko, A. V.; Maslov, S.; Goldenfeld, N.

We have performed detailed modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic within the State of Illinois at the population level, and within the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign at a more detailed level of description that follows individual students as they go about their educational and social activities. We ask the following questions: (1) How many COVID-19 cases are expected to be detected by entry screening? (2) Will this initial bump in cases be containable using the mitigation steps being undertaken at UIUC? Our answers are: (1) Assuming that there are approximately 45,000 students returning to campus in the week beginning August 15, 2020, our most conservative estimate predicts that a median of 270 {+/-} 90 (minimum-maximum range) COVID-19 positive cases will be detected by entry screening. The earliest estimate for entry screening that we report was made on July 24th and predicted 198 {+/-} 90 (68% CI) positive cases. (2) If the number of returning students is less, then our estimate just needs to be scaled proportionately. (3) This initial bump will be contained by entry screening initiated isolation and contact tracing, and once the semester is underway, by universal masking, a hybrid teaching model, twice-weekly testing, isolation, contact tracing, quarantining and the use of the Safer Illinois exposure notification app.