Selected article for: "estimate number and expected number"
Author: Antoine Kevorkian; Thierry Grenet; Hubert Gallee
Title: Tracking the Covid-19 pandemic : Simple visualization of the epidemic states and trajectories of select European countries & assessing the effects of delays in official response.
  • Document date: 2020_3_17
    • ID: 5u04irwz_10
    Snippet: A comparison of plots in Figure 1 shows that the Italian lockdown versus the Chinese lockdown was ordered approximately 10 days later in the epidemic progression. One may readily try to estimate the final number of cases to be expected by assuming that the Italian lockdown will have the same effects as the Chinese lockdown. The ascending part of the Italian curve can be approximated by a straight line with a slope α = 0.817 in logarithmic scale......
    Document: A comparison of plots in Figure 1 shows that the Italian lockdown versus the Chinese lockdown was ordered approximately 10 days later in the epidemic progression. One may readily try to estimate the final number of cases to be expected by assuming that the Italian lockdown will have the same effects as the Chinese lockdown. The ascending part of the Italian curve can be approximated by a straight line with a slope α = 0.817 in logarithmic scale. As shown in Appendix 1 this corresponds to the following time dependence for the total number of confirmed cases since epidemic onset N(t):

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