Estimating the distribution of the incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection between travelers to Hubei, China and non-travelers

Leung, Char

ObjectivesAmid the continuing spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), the incubation period of COVID-19 should be regularly re-assessed as more information is available upon the increase in reported cases. The present work estimated the distribution of incubation periods of patients infected in and outside Hubei province of China. MethodsClinical data were collected from the individual cases reported by the media as they were not fully available on the official pages of the Chinese health authorities. MLE was used to estimate the distributions of the incubation period. ResultsIt was found that the incubation period of patients with no travel history to Hubei was longer and more volatile. ConclusionIt is recommended that the duration of quarantine should be extended to at least 3 weeks.