Modelling Decay of Population Immunity With Proposed Second Dose Deferral Strategy

Jurgens, G. T.

A second dose deferred strategy has been proposed to increase initial population immunity as an alternative to the default two dose vaccine regimen with spacing of 21 or 28 days between vaccine doses for the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. This increased initial population immunity is only of value if one dose immunity does not decay so fast as to nullify the benefit. Because decay rates of one dose and two dose efficacy are currently unknown, a model to project population immunity between the two strategies was created. By evaluating the decay rate of one dose efficacy, two dose efficacy, and time until the second dose is given, the model shows that if there is an increased decay rate of one dose efficacy relative to two dose decay rates, it is highly unlikely to nullify the benefit of increased population immunity seen in a second dose deferral strategy. Rather, all reasonable scenarios strongly favour a second dose deferral strategy with much higher projected population immunity in comparison to the default regimen.