Author: Huiwen Wang; Yanwen Zhang; Shan Lu; Shanshan Wang
Title: Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: fyh8gjjl_76
Snippet: As for the second turning point, since the true T 2 occurred on Feb 11th, we summarize the frequency of the prediction results obtained with t 0 varying from Jan 29th to Feb 10th, 2020 and m = 5 in Figure 3 (a). From it we can see that the prediction of second turning point mainly concentrated in the range from Feb 9th to Feb 11th, which is consistent with the observed second turning point in reality. It is worth mentioning that we got the gene.....
Document: As for the second turning point, since the true T 2 occurred on Feb 11th, we summarize the frequency of the prediction results obtained with t 0 varying from Jan 29th to Feb 10th, 2020 and m = 5 in Figure 3 (a). From it we can see that the prediction of second turning point mainly concentrated in the range from Feb 9th to Feb 11th, which is consistent with the observed second turning point in reality. It is worth mentioning that we got the general information of T 2 at a very early stage: we predicted on Feb 2nd that the second turning point T 2 would arrive on Feb 11th, which is exactly the same as the 12 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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