Author: Ilaria Renna
Title: When will the Covid-19 epidemic fade out? Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: a9bnafr7_24
Snippet: We have attempted to describe the pattern of infections of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy starting from January 31 to today. Our aim was to make a reasonable prediction on the time the epidemic will reach its peak, with a consequent decrease of disease. We used a SIRS model under the framework of small world network formulation. Incubation period is a fundamental parameter in the epidemic evolution and it can be included directly in.....
Document: We have attempted to describe the pattern of infections of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy starting from January 31 to today. Our aim was to make a reasonable prediction on the time the epidemic will reach its peak, with a consequent decrease of disease. We used a SIRS model under the framework of small world network formulation. Incubation period is a fundamental parameter in the epidemic evolution and it can be included directly in the model. We used the model pattern of infected model that fit the real data in the increasing part of initial wave. We estimated the peak as the maximum value in the model curve of infection people. Alternately we used a Gaussian curve, and obtained an additional peak estimation. We estimate that the duration of the COVID-19 disease is around 5 months. This is a rough . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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