Author: pierre magal; Glenn Webb
Title: Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, Italy, France and Germany Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: 9zeqigqa_43
Snippet: In [1] we demonstrated a method to identify this constant transmission rate. When public measures are begun in order to ameliorate the epidemic, a third phase begins, which we model with a time-dependent exponentially decreasing transmission rate in [2] . In [2] we applied this method to mainland China, and demonstrated the ability of our model to predict the forward time-line of the epidemic. In Figure 4 in [2] , we showed how the prediction unf.....
Document: In [1] we demonstrated a method to identify this constant transmission rate. When public measures are begun in order to ameliorate the epidemic, a third phase begins, which we model with a time-dependent exponentially decreasing transmission rate in [2] . In [2] we applied this method to mainland China, and demonstrated the ability of our model to predict the forward time-line of the epidemic. In Figure 4 in [2] , we showed how the prediction unfolded week by week, with increasing agreement with reported case 15 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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