When will the Covid-19 epidemic fade out?

Ilaria Renna

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.27.20045138 doi: medRxiv preprint Also in this case, the trend of the infected nodes is exponential , ∝ 5 I 6 , but with ? = 0.11days >? . The curve of the infected in the model is less steep than that of the real data and has the first maximum at = 62. Thus, according to the model, the peak of disease will be 62 days after the epidemic outbreak, that is about the 2 nd of April 2020. Due to the aforementioned actions taken by the Italian government, it will probably happen before that day. The shape of each epidemic wave is similar to a Gaussian. Therefore, in Figure 4 a Gaussian curve fit with expected value = 73 and variance = 16 is added to the epidemic data. Unlike the previous case, the prediction is that a maximum of 10 N infected will be reached 73 days from the beginning of the epidemic that is about 13 April 2020.