Selected article for: "local epidemic and present model"
Author: Sanyi Tang; Biao Tang; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Fan Xia; Tangjuan Li; Sha He; Pengyu Ren; Xia Wang; Zhihang Peng; Yanni Xiao; Jianhong Wu
Title: Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation
  • Document date: 2020_2_29
    • ID: aoqyx8mk_54
    Snippet: In the present investigation, we devised a stochastic model that can be used as an important model framework and methodology for the evaluation of imported cases on local epidemic in the Shaanxi province or other similar provinces. From the data analysis, it seems that the stringent public health interventions adopted by the Chinese authorities are effective in controlling the infection. According to data from contact tracing, the first imported .....
    Document: In the present investigation, we devised a stochastic model that can be used as an important model framework and methodology for the evaluation of imported cases on local epidemic in the Shaanxi province or other similar provinces. From the data analysis, it seems that the stringent public health interventions adopted by the Chinese authorities are effective in controlling the infection. According to data from contact tracing, the first imported cases in the Shaanxi Province occurred earlier than January 10 th 2020, and most of the imported cases were imported to the Shaanxi Province before the implementation of the national travel restrictions on January 23 rd 2020. Therefore, the earlier the implementation of the travel restrictions, the greater the reduction of infected cases by COVID-19 in the Shaanxi province has. An intermittent population inflow with low proportion of imported cases may significantly mitigate the transmission risk. Thus, if the public health authorities can strictly monitor and reduce the number of imported cases, it would be possible for the Shaanxi province to return back and resume working continuously.

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