Author: Lauren Tindale; Michelle Coombe; Jessica E Stockdale; Emma Garlock; Wing Yin Venus Lau; Manu Saraswat; Yen-Hsiang Brian Lee; Louxin Zhang; Dongxuan Chen; Jacco Wallinga; Caroline Colijn
Title: Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 66ulqu11_44
Snippet: In Singapore and Tianjin we estimated relatively short serial intervals. Of particular note, early estimates of R0 for COVID-19 used the SARS serial interval of 8.4 days [7, 8, 26] . Our serial interval findings from two populations mirror those of and Zhao et al [27] and Nishiura et al [13] , who estimated a serial interval of 4.4 and 4.0 days. Furthermore, we estimate the serial interval to be shorter than the incubation period in both clusters.....
Document: In Singapore and Tianjin we estimated relatively short serial intervals. Of particular note, early estimates of R0 for COVID-19 used the SARS serial interval of 8.4 days [7, 8, 26] . Our serial interval findings from two populations mirror those of and Zhao et al [27] and Nishiura et al [13] , who estimated a serial interval of 4.4 and 4.0 days. Furthermore, we estimate the serial interval to be shorter than the incubation period in both clusters, which suggests pre-symptomatic transmission. This indicates that spread of SARS-CoV-2 is likely to be difficult to stop by isolation of detected cases alone. However, shorter serial intervals also lead to lower estimates of R0, and 13 . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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