Author: CESAR BORDEHORE; Miriam Navarro; Zaida Herrador; Eva S. Fonfria
Title: Understanding COVID-19 spreading through simulation modeling and scenarios comparison: preliminary results. Document date: 2020_4_1
ID: ib0cofa4_109
Snippet: Numbers Source (Table 1) , we obtained the figures 3 to 7. Figure 3 shows the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Spain (red line) and data obtained from the model (dotted lines) with the parameters in Tables 1, 2 and 3. Isolation measures began on 14th March. We added in this graph the effect of seven different R0 from the 14 th March and the expected evolution without any measures at all, maintaining a R0 of 2.32. The adjustment of the number of dea.....
Document: Numbers Source (Table 1) , we obtained the figures 3 to 7. Figure 3 shows the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Spain (red line) and data obtained from the model (dotted lines) with the parameters in Tables 1, 2 and 3. Isolation measures began on 14th March. We added in this graph the effect of seven different R0 from the 14 th March and the expected evolution without any measures at all, maintaining a R0 of 2.32. The adjustment of the number of deaths and fatality rate is shown in Figure 5 . We had to apply a non-constant fatality rate to better fit the real numbers. Doted red and green lines show two scenarios, the first one with a higher and constant fatality rate, and the second, with a lower fatality rate after a peak.
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