Author: Luis Santamaria; Joaquin Hortal
Title: Chasing the ghost of infection past: identifying thresholds of change during the COVID-19 infection in Spain Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 8niqpwvc_42
Snippet: What our results fail to show is the expected effects of certain key events pinpointed by the media on the spread of COVID-19 infections. The demonstrations and football matches of 7-8 March did not result in significant increases in neither infection rates nor in the number of infections (as reflected in the numbers of cases and fatalities). An inspection of the stallingand-jump of the numbers of cases and deaths in Madrid, which triggered such .....
Document: What our results fail to show is the expected effects of certain key events pinpointed by the media on the spread of COVID-19 infections. The demonstrations and football matches of 7-8 March did not result in significant increases in neither infection rates nor in the number of infections (as reflected in the numbers of cases and fatalities). An inspection of the stallingand-jump of the numbers of cases and deaths in Madrid, which triggered such public perception, indicates that they are inconsistent with it -since, given the lag times involved, their effects should have shown up 10 to 21 days later. The stalling-and-jump pattern, which can also be observed in the previous and and following weekends (1st and 15th March, for the number of cases and the number of deaths, respectively), is more likely related to the phase 1 infection bouts shown in Figure 5 . Alternatively, they could be caused by droppings in patient attendance to hospitals or case/fatality reporting during the weekend, with the subsequent increase in the following Monday.
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