Analysing recovery from pandemics by Learning Theory: the case of CoVid-19

Romney B. Duffey; Enrico Zio

Despite the huge differences in timescales, the "recovery rate curve" is simply the exponential Universal Learning Curve of equation (3) The CoVid -19 pandemic and pulmonary disease recovery rate data all fit with the Universal Learning Curve trend (which is known to fit millions of events with learning). The infection rate, E*, normalized to the initial peak value, as a function of the time elapsed The key point is that all the data follow almost exactly the same decreasing trajectory and, furthermore, the learning curve is nearly the same (K~3), as previously found for any learning experience on outcomes, accidents, events of any other modern technological system operated by humans. Indeed, the results surprisingly follow the curve developed some ten years after it was first discovered, while working on completely different data. We can claim that this trend decline due to learning is direct evidence of learning about risk reduction also in this case of the pandemic, and call it the Universal Recovery Curve.