COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics

Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil

The SIR modeling for prediction assumes a fixed reproduction number R0 without considering any interventions. Thus, if the training data to develop SIR model is taken prior to any health intervention such as Movement Control Order (MCO), the prediction of future outbreak would be based on the estimated parameters from the training data. Basically, the basic reproduction number, R0 reflects the ration of the infection from one infected patient to others. shows the rates for each of the components in the SIR model at a time. The model we implemented does not consider the effect of natural death or birth rate with the assumption of the outstanding period of the disease is shorter than the lifetime of human. The first part of the equation is corresponding to the susceptible (S) where represents the population of S at time t. Assuming at a time t, the probability of the susceptible to get infected is the fraction of susceptible over the total population considered in the modeling, and the probability of the infected individual to infect the susceptible is the fraction of the infected (I) at time t, over the total population in the model, . Assume that eventually the portion of the susceptible will be reduced whenever an individual gets infected. Thus, a negative of rate of transmission, β, is included in the formula. On the other hand, the second All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.