Data-Driven Study of the the COVID-19 Pandemic via Age-Structured Modelling and Prediction of the Health System Failure in Brazil amid Diverse Intervention Strategies

Askery Canabarro; Elayne Tenorio; Renato Martins; Lais Martins; Samurai Brito; Rafael Chaves

A critical aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than the percentage of infection and even the mortality rate, is the healthcare system capacity. In Brazil, the number of intensive care units (ICUs) up to February 2020 was 36, 939 adult and pediatric beds according to the Cadastro Nacional de Estabelecimentos de Saúde (CNES) available in the DataSUS portal in Ref. [13] (in Portuguese, please see instructions to retrieve the data), with a historical occupancy of not less than 85%, which yields in about 5500 free ICUs [14] . The global European number of ICUs per 100.000 inhabitants is around 10 [15] , US leading the world with a ratio of 34.7 [16] , much below what is expected to be needed as the number of infections approaches its peak. Therefore, no country is really prepared for a devastating amount of critical patients. To * [e-mail] cope with that and in order to protect the healthcare systems, in the absence of any efficient medicament and/or vaccine to pharmaceutically detain the fast spread of the disease, many public policies and governmental strategies, termed as non-phamaceutical interventions (NPIs), are been tested amid the epidemic/pandemic situation. Currently, many of such public health measures have been discussed/proposed to decrease the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, by reducing the social contact in the population and, consequently, the transmission rate of the virus, alleviating the health system and providing time for auxiliary measures (expansion of the system, military hospitals and so on).